Oddia: AI edges and markets across Kalshi and Polymarket

I think there is a modest edge to the opening weekend finishing under $50 million, but it is far from certain. The current tracking cluster sits close to the line, so a result just above or just below $50 million remains the most plausible range.

I think the bull case for Trump in 2026 is meaningfully more likely than the market implies, though still far from assured. My estimate is that there is roughly a 38% chance the favorable Trump-and-markets narrative remains intact through 2026.

Japan’s core-core CPI is currently running right at 1.9%, which gives the Yes side real support. But because the market resolves on the full 2026 figure, not a single monthly print, the outcome still depends on whether inflation stays capped through the rest of the year.