Oddia: AI edges and markets across Kalshi and Polymarket
Oddia runs independent AI probability estimates across Kalshi and Polymarket and surfaces the gaps worth your attention, daily.
FeaturedPolymarketNVDA
Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
28%Yes$1.9M volEnds Jan 1, 2029
FeaturedPolymarketFAA
FAA outage attributed to Iran?
1%Yes$149.9K volEnds Dec 1, 2026
FeaturedPolymarketAI
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?
14%Yes$963.6K volEnds Apr 1, 2027
FeaturedPolymarketTech
Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?
10%Yes$486.0K volEnds Jan 1, 2028
FeaturedPolymarketParent For Derivative
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1%Yes$69.3M volEnds Jan 1, 2027
Daily edges · Nov 14, 2026
refreshingWhere the AI disagrees today
CryptoKalshi
EndedBTC price on Nov 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?
AI81%
MKT26%
Edge+55Undervalued
No edge: Bitcoin is still well above the $70,000 line, but ETF outflows and weak technicals raise downside risk. That supports a probability just below the market's 82%.
pop culturePolymarket
47dJensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31?
AI44%
MKT23%
Edge+21Hidden Gem
Leaning No: the latest reports on November 13 describe another alleged relationship, but there is still no public acknowledgment by Huang naming anyone other than Alice Huang. The clearest chance for a qualifying admission is his reported congressional testimony before November 26.
CompaniesKalshi
TomorrowWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
AI15%
MKT6%
Edge+9Undervalued
Leaning Yes: the SEC filing and roadshow are direct confirmation before the cutoff. The market’s 6% price looks far below the explicit rule-triggering evidence.
6 edges published today across both venues.
Trending now
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Polymarket$33.6M vol
88%Yes
Who will the next Pope be?
Kalshi$150.9K vol
6%Yes
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
Polymarket$1.6M vol
53%Yes
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Kalshi$43.5K vol
11%Yes
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket$1.3B vol
26%Yes
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
Kalshi$462.8K vol
99%Yes
Ending soon
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Polymarket$2 vol
51%Yes
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2027?
Kalshi$9.2K vol
3%Yes
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Polymarket- vol
51%Yes
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2028?
Kalshi$642 vol
9%Yes
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Polymarket- vol
50%Yes
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Kalshi$59.5K vol
50%Yes